Propensity scores in the presence of effect modification: A case study using the comparison of mortality on hemodialysis versus peritoneal dialysis

Purpose. To control for confounding bias from non-random treatment assignment in observational data, both traditional multivariable models and more recently propensity score approaches have been applied. Our aim was to compare a propensity score-stratified model with a traditional multivariable-adjusted model, specifically in estimating survival of hemodialysis (HD) versus peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Methods. Using the Dutch End-Stage Renal Disease Registry, we constructed a propensity score, predicting PD assignment from age, gender, primary renal disease, center of dialysis, and year of first renal replacement therapy. We developed two Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate survival on PD relative to HD, a propensity score-stratified model stratifying on the propensity score and a multivariable-adjusted model, and tested several interaction terms in both models. Results. The propensity score performed well: it showed a reasonable fit, had a good c-statistic, calibrated well and balanced the covariates. The main-effects multivariable-adjusted model and the propensity score-stratified univariable Cox model resulted in similar relative mortality risk estimates of PD compared with HD (0.99 and 0.97, respectively) with fewer significant covariates in the propensity model. After introducing the missing interaction variables for effect modification in both models, the mortality risk estimates for both main effects and interactions remained comparable, but the propensity score model had nearly as many covariates because of the additional interaction variables. Conclusion. Although the propensity score performed well, it did not alter the treatment effect in the outcome model and lost its advantage of parsimony in the presence of effect modification

Survival in dialysis patients is not different between patients with diabetes as primary renal disease and patients with diabetes as a co-morbid condition

On dialysis, survival among patients with diabetes mellitus is inferior to survival of non-diabetic patients. We hypothesized that patients with diabetes as primary renal disease have worse survival compared to patients with diabetes as a co-morbid condition and aimed to compare all-cause mortality between these patient groups. Data were collected from the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis (NECOSAD), a multicenter, prospective cohort study in which new patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD) were monitored until transplantation or death. Patients with diabetes as primary cause of ESRD were compared with patients with diabetes as co-morbid condition and both of these patient groups were compared to patients without diabetes. Analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression. Fifteen % of the patients had diabetic nephropathy as primary renal disease (N = 281); 6% had diabetes as co-morbid condition (N = 107) and 79% had no diabetes (N = 1465). During follow-up 42% of patients (N = 787) died. Compared to non-diabetic patients, mortality risk was increased for both patients with diabetes as primary renal disease HR: 1.9 (95% CI 1.6, 2.3) and for patients with diabetes as co-morbid condition HR: 1.7 (95% CI 1.3, 2.2). Mortality was not significantly higher in patients with diabetes as primary renal disease compared to patients with diabetes as co-morbid condition (HR 1.06; 95% CI 0.79, 1.43). This study in patients with ESRD showed no survival difference between patients with diabetes as primary renal disease and patients with diabetes as a co-morbid condition. Both conditions were associated with increased mortality risk compared to non-diabetic patient

Hospitalized adult patients with 2009 influenza A(H1N1) in Beijing, China: risk factors for hospital mortality

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In April 2009, the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus emerged and spread globally. The objective of this study was to describe the independent risk factors for hospital mortality and the treatment effect of corticosteroids among patients with 2009 influenza A(H1N1) infection.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We retrospectively obtained clinical data of 155 adult patients with confirmed infection of 2009 influenza A(H1N1) in 23 hospitals in Beijing, China from October 1 to December 23, 2009. Risk factors for hospital mortality were identified with multivariate logistic regression analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among the 155 patients, 90 (58.1%) were male, and mean age was 43.0 ± 18.6 years, and comorbidities were present in 81 (52.3%) patients. The most common organ dysfunctions included acute respiratory failure, altered mental status, septic shock, and acute renal failure. Oseltamivir was initiated in 125 patients (80.6%), only 16 patients received antiviral therapy within 48 hours after symptom onset. Fifty-two patients (33.5%) were treated with systemic corticosteroids, with a median daily dose of 80 mg. Twenty-seven patients (17.4%) died during hospital stay. Diabetes [odds ratio (OR) 8.830, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.041 to 38.201, p = 0.004) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level (OR 1.240, 95% CI 1.025 to 1.500, p = 0.027) were independent risk factors of hospital death, as were septic shock and altered mental status. Corticosteroids use was associated with a trend toward higher hospital mortality (OR 3.668, 95% CI 0.987 to 13.640, p = 0.052).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Hospitalized patients with 2009 H1N1 influenza had relative poor outcome. The risk factors at hospitalization may help clinicians to identify the high-risk patients. In addition, corticosteroids use should not be regarded as routine pharmacologic therapy.</p

Interleukin and Growth Factor Levels in Subretinal Fluid in Rhegmatogenous Retinal Detachment: A Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND: Rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD) is a major cause of visual loss in developed countries. Proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR), an eye-sight threatening complication of RRD surgery, resembles a wound-healing process with inflammation, scar tissue formation, and membrane contraction. This study was performed to determine the possible involvement of a wide range of cytokines in the future development of PVR, and to identify predictors of PVR and visual outcome. METHODOLOGY: A multiplex immunoassay was used for the simultaneous detection of 29 different cytokines in subretinal fluid samples from patients with primary RRD. Of 306 samples that were collected and stored in our BioBank between 2001 and 2008, 21 samples from patients who developed postoperative PVR were compared with 54 age-, sex-, and storage-time-matched RRD control patients who had an uncomplicated postoperative course during the overall follow-up period. FINDINGS: Levels of IL-1α, IL-2, IL-3, IL-6, VEGF, and ICAM-1 were significantly higher (P<0.05) in patients who developed postoperative PVR after reattachment surgery than in patients with an uncomplicated postoperative course, whereas levels of IL-1β, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-9, IL-10, IL-11, IL-12p70, IL-13, IL-15, IL-17, IL-18, IL-21, IL-22, IL-23, IL-25, IL-33, TNF-α, IFN-γ, IGF-1, bFGF, HGF, and NGF were not (P>0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that IL-3 (P = 0.001), IL-6 (P = 0.047), ICAM-1 (P = 0.010), and preoperative visual acuity (P = 0.026) were independent predictors of postoperative PVR. Linear regression analysis showed that ICAM-1 (P = 0.005) and preoperative logMAR visual acuity (P = 0.001) were predictive of final visual outcome after primary RRD repair. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings indicate that after RRD onset an exaggerated response of certain cytokines may predispose to PVR. Sampling at a time close to the onset of primary RRD may thus provide clues as to which biological events may initiate the development of PVR and, most importantly, may provide a means for therapeutic control

Severe Pandemic H1N1 2009 Infection Is Associated with Transient NK and T Deficiency and Aberrant CD8 Responses

BACKGROUND: It is unclear why the severity of influenza varies in healthy adults or why the burden of severe influenza shifts to young adults when pandemic strains emerge. One possibility is that cross-protective T cell responses wane in this age group in the absence of recent infection. We therefore compared the acute cellular immune response in previously healthy adults with severe versus mild pandemic H1N1 infection. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 49 previously healthy adults admitted to the National Hospital of Tropical Diseases, Viet Nam with RT-PCR-confirmed 2009 H1N1 infection were prospectively enrolled. 39 recovered quickly whereas 10 developed severe symptoms requiring supplemental oxygen and prolonged hospitalization. Peripheral blood lymphocyte subset counts and activation (HLADR, CD38) and differentiation (CD27, CD28) marker expression were determined on days 0, 2, 5, 10, 14 and 28 by flow cytometry. NK, CD4 and CD8 lymphopenia developed in 100%, 90% and 60% of severe cases versus 13% (p<0.001), 28%, (p = 0.001) and 18% (p = 0.014) of mild cases. CD4 and NK counts normalized following recovery. B cell counts were not significantly associated with severity. CD8 activation peaked 6-8 days after mild influenza onset, when 13% (6-22%) were HLADR+CD38+, and was accompanied by a significant loss of resting/CD27+CD28+ cells without accumulation of CD27+CD28- or CD27-CD28- cells. In severe influenza CD8 activation peaked more than 9 days post-onset, and/or was excessive (30-90% HLADR+CD38+) in association with accumulation of CD27+CD28- cells and maintenance of CD8 counts. CONCLUSION: Severe influenza is associated with transient T and NK cell deficiency. CD8 phenotype changes during mild influenza are consistent with a rapidly resolving memory response whereas in severe influenza activation is either delayed or excessive, and partially differentiated cells accumulate within blood indicating that recruitment of effector cells to the lung could be impaired

Is Meta-Analysis for Utility Values Appropriate Given the Potential Impact Different Elicitation Methods Have on Values?

A growing number of published articles report estimates from meta-analysis or meta-regression on health state utility values (HSUVs), with a view to providing input into decision-analytic models. Pooling HSUVs is problematic because of the fact that different valuation methods and different preference-based measures (PBMs) can generate different values on exactly the same clinical health state. Existing meta-analyses of HSUVs are characterised by high levels of heterogeneity, and meta-regressions have identified significant (and substantial) impacts arising from the elicitation method used. The use of meta-regression with few utility values and inclusion criteria that extend beyond the required utility value has not helped. There is the potential to explore greater use of mapping between different PBMs and valuation methods prior to data synthesis, which could support greater use of pooling values. Researchers wishing to populate decision-analytic models have a responsibility to incorporate all high-quality evidence available. In relation to HSUVs, greater understanding of the differences between different methods and greater consistency of methodology is required before this can be achieved